DMS Statistics and Data Science Seminar

Time: Mar 18, 2021 (02:00 PM)
Location: ZOOM


Speaker: Andrea Apolloni (CIRAD, Montpellier, Languedoc-Roussillon, France)

Title: Modelling and Predicting National and Regional Animal Mobility in North/West Africa


Abstract: The trade of live animals is one of the main economic activities in most of the West and North African countries. Due to the absence of infrastructure, animals are sold alive at local markets to traders, and then moved to capital or coastal cities where they are slaughtered and butchered. In general, the consumption and production areas are several hundred km apart. The possibility of providing a reliable picture of livestock mobility in the area is hindered by the fact that few quantitative data are collected. In this talk, I present the results of the analysis of data provided by Veterinarian services in West and North Africa countries on ruminants’ mobility. Using gravity models we found that possible mobility drivers include environmental factors (conditioning the availability of natural resources), commercial reasons (demand and market price), economical (gdp difference between producer and consumer areas ) and social factors like religious festivities such as Tabaski celebration. To conclude I will present the application of this approach to two case studies: the diffusion of genetic strains in the area and the risk of bluetongue occurrence in Senegal.