Red Wolf (Canis rufus)

Population Viability

At this point in my studies (Dec. 2009), I have completed a series of traditional population models evaluating Red Wolf persistence potential with continued management in the Red Wolf Recovery Area, North Carolina. The results from this assessment are currently being compiled for publication.

However, these models are perhaps too limited in scope to be of use to management officials since one of the many goals for the USFWS is to establish a self-sustaining population with minimal, or ideally in the absence of, management. In 1999, Kelly et al. acknowledged coyotes, specifically coyote hybridization, as perhaps the biggest threat to recovery efforts in the RWRA. Since 2000, the USFWS enacted a Red Wolf action plan wherein coyote and wolf-coyote hybrids are heavily controlled (i.e. euthenized or sterlized within specific zones in the RWRA). Unfortunately, in part due to the efforts outlined in the action plan, very little is known about the Coyotes in the region. More importantly, the behavioral dynamics that lead to wolf-coyote hybridization are poorly understood.

Due to the status of Red Wolves and the nature of the program, traditional experiments and/or observational studies that might elucidate the mechanics of hybridization would be unfeasable. However, incorporating what we do know about canid behavior and social structure, a hypothesis framework of competing models can be used to assess likely drivers of hybridization between these two canids.



Ultimately, we're interested in how hybridization and/or competitive interactions with Coyotes (C. latrans) influences the viability of the extant population of Red Wolves in North Carolina. I have recently begun the initial stages in developing an individual-based model wherein individual behavior drive system-level dynamics. These models provide a unique advantage over previous models, allowing the programmer to incorporate critical behaviors that are essential to the system. In my case, I'll have the flexibility to incorporate mate choice and space-use within Red Wolves when addressing questions of short-term viability in the absence of management. Although there are immediate benefits to such a model for the existing population in North Carolina, the final model will have the flexability to include management actions not only for the purpose of calibration, but also to allow us to investigate potential secondary release sites within their historic range.