F\pAVERY B8= hL,8= hL,> Wd8= hL,> Wd8= hL,> Wd  8= hL,> 4Wd4448= hL,> Wd  dMbP?_FGIHJKL/9NO@ Raw DataNaive Forecastmoving averageExp. SmoothingSales Force Com p Raw Data F B  dMbP?_"*+%,D1 Arial1 Arial1 Arial1 Arial1 Arial1 Arial1 Arial&?'?(?)?M @dXX"dXX??@V General00.00#,##0 #,##0.00#,##0_);\(#,##0\)#,##0_);[Red]\(#,##0\)#,##0.00_);\(#,##0.00\)#,##0.00_);[Red]\(#,##0.00\)"$"#,##0_);\("$"#,##0\)"$"#,##0_);[Red]\("$"#,##0\) "$"#,##0.00_);\("$"#,##0.00\)%""$"#,##0.00_);[Red]\("$"#,##0.00\)0%0.00% 0.00E+00 #\ ?/? #\ ??/?? m/d/yyyy d\-mmm\-yy d\-mmm mmm\-yy h:mm\ AM/PMh:mm:ss\ AM/PMh:mm h:mm:ssm/d/yyyy\ h:mm 0.00_) ##0.0E+0mm:ss@52_("$"* #,##0_);_("$"* \(#,##0\);_("$"* "-"_);_(@_),)_(* #,##0_);_(* \(#,##0\);_(* "-"_);_(@_)=:_("$"* #,##0.00_);_("$"* \(#,##0.00\);_("$"* "-"??_);_(@_)41_(* #,##0.00_);_(* \(#,##0.00\);_(* "-"??_);_(@_)C C  C  C  C  C C C C C C C C C C C  C " C  C ! C  C  C  C  C  C "C "U ;;9,,Z,,,!, , , , , ,,,,,,,,,,,+#Crystal Pure Bottled Water Company Raw DataVN(See the note package for the problem, the spreadsheet only has the solution.)Actual Year Sales~ @~ 6@~ @~ @~ @~ @~ @~ ȵ@~ @~ >@~ @~ ˻@~  @~ @~ @~ M@~ @~ @~ @~ @~ @~ e@~  @~ ]@~ $@~ @~ (@~ @~ ,@~ ?@~ 0@~ @1997 est= hL,> Wd????mrcw,sVr-,sVrssI 0ssss 0 0s\sL 8s 0sx 08DsDhs? ssq 0sDqq     "  Naive Forecast F !HB  dMbP?_"*+%,D1 Arial1 Arial1 Arial1 Arial1 Arial1 Arial1 Arial&?'?(?)?M @dXX"dXX??@V General00.00#,##0 #,##0.00#,##0_);\(#,##0\)#,##0_);[Red]\(#,##0\)#,##0.00_);\(#,##0.00\)#,##0.00_);[Red]\(#,##0.00\)"$"#,##0_);\("$"#,##0\)"$"#,##0_);[Red]\("$"#,##0\) "$"#,##0.00_);\("$"#,##0.00\)%""$"#,##0.00_);[Red]\("$"#,##0.00\)0%0.00% 0.00E+00 #\ ?/? #\ ??/?? m/d/yyyy d\-mmm\-yy d\-mmm mmm\-yy h:mm\ AM/PMh:mm:ss\ AM/PMh:mm h:mm:ssm/d/yyyy\ h:mm 0.00_) ##0.0E+0mm:ss@52_("$"* #,##0_);_("$"* \(#,##0\);_("$"* "-"_);_(@_),)_(* #,##0_);_(* \(#,##0\);_(* "-"_);_(@_)=:_("$"* #,##0.00_);_("$"* \(#,##0.00\);_("$"* "-"??_);_(@_)41_(* #,##0.00_);_(* \(#,##0.00\);_(* "-"??_);_(@_)C C  C  C  C  C C C C C C C C C C C  C " C  C ! C  C  C  C  C  C "C "C !U !;X;M,8,Z,8,A,H,0 ,_ ,_ ,_ ,_ ,_,_,_,_,_,_,_,_,_,_,_,C,_,(,(,(,(,(,(+#Crystal Pure Bottled Water Company Sales ForecastVN(See the note package for the problem, the spreadsheet only has the solution.)Naive ForecastActual NaiveAbsolute Year SalesForecast% error~ @~ 6@~ @~ @6@D$ Jʴ?DDDA~ @~ @ @D$  $?D D D A~ @~ ȵ@ @D $ ε?D D D A~ @~ >@ ȵ@D $ +ˌ?D D D A~ @~ ˻@ >@D $ 48~?D D D A~  @~ @ ˻@D $ ^˔@?D D D A~ @~ M@@D $͵?DDDA~ @~ @M@D$.Pd?DDDA~ @~ @@D$lV?DDDA~ @~ e@@D$=C.?DDDA~  @~ ]@e@D$q??DDDA~ $@~ @]@D$0>?DDDA~ (@~ @@D$"i?DDDA~ ,@~ ?@@D$L?DDDA~ 0@~ @?@D$EF*Msa?DDDA1997 est@D&Mean Absolute Percentage Error>&? %B ,    = hL,> Wd????mrcw,sVr-,sVrssI 0ssss 0 0s\sL s 0s8x 0DsDhs? sq 0sDqq     "  $moving average F B  dMbP?_"*+%,D1 Arial1 Arial1 Arial1 Arial1 Arial1 Arial1 Arial&?'?(?)?M @dXX"dXX??@V General00.00#,##0 #,##0.00#,##0_);\(#,##0\)#,##0_);[Red]\(#,##0\)#,##0.00_);\(#,##0.00\)#,##0.00_);[Red]\(#,##0.00\)"$"#,##0_);\("$"#,##0\)"$"#,##0_);[Red]\("$"#,##0\) "$"#,##0.00_);\("$"#,##0.00\)%""$"#,##0.00_);[Red]\("$"#,##0.00\)0%0.00% 0.00E+00 #\ ?/? #\ ??/?? m/d/yyyy d\-mmm\-yy d\-mmm mmm\-yy h:mm\ AM/PMh:mm:ss\ AM/PMh:mm h:mm:ssm/d/yyyy\ h:mm 0.00_) ##0.0E+0mm:ss@52_("$"* #,##0_);_("$"* \(#,##0\);_("$"* "-"_);_(@_),)_(* #,##0_);_(* \(#,##0\);_(* "-"_);_(@_)=:_("$"* #,##0.00_);_("$"* \(#,##0.00\);_("$"* "-"??_);_(@_)41_(* #,##0.00_);_(* \(#,##0.00\);_(* "-"??_);_(@_)C C  C  C  C  C C C C C C C C C C C  C " C  C ! C  C  C  C  C  C "C "C !C  U}  }   ;;k,V,t,v,},N ,N , , , ,,,,,,,,,,,,+#Crystal Pure Bottled Water Company Sales Forecast4,Two and Three Period Moving Average ForecastActual2 PeriodAbsolute3 PeriodAbsolute Year Sales Moving Avg% error Moving Avg% error~ @~ 6@~ @~ @~ @~ @ ި@DD$  ?D D D A   ~ @~ ȵ@ ^@DD $  ?D D D A % P@DDD $ f.f?D D D A~ @~ >@ @D D $ &-#?D D D A % UUUUU@DD D $ t)?D D D A~ @~ ˻@ @D D $ ?D D D A % @D D D $ m,?D D D A~  @~ @ @D D $ Wge?D D D A % UUUUU@D D D $ >@G?D D D A~ @~ M@ a@D D $J4:C?DDDA%UUUUU@D D D $=)P *?DDDA~ @~ @ @D D$׬*?DDDA%ʿ@D D D$%d?DDDA~ @~ @ @@DD$P9_?DDDA%UUUU@D DD$첂Q?DDDA~ @~ e@ @DD$>?DDDA%@DDD$qyG?DDDA~  @~ ]@ @DD$\;?DDDA%V@DDD$@&?DDDA~ $@~ @  @DD$6"r=?DDDA%*@DDD$g#?DDDA~ (@~ @ `@DD$/|gc?DDDA%UUUU @DDD$3?DDDA~ ,@~ ?@  @DD$/?DDDA%@DDD$XR9@?DDDA~ 0@~ @ @DD$]ت?DDDA%@DDD$G,?DDDA1997 estimated -@DD%@DDD&Mean Absolute Percentage ErrorM*f2? %BԢ9? % B= hL,> Wd  ????mrcw,sVr-,sVrssI 0sss s 0 0s\sL s 0sx 0DsDhs? ssq 0sDqq     "  ZExp. Smoothing F I'*PB  dMbP?_"*+%,D1 Arial1 Arial1 Arial1 Arial1 Arial1 Arial1 Arial&?'?(?)?M @dXX"dXX??@V General00.00#,##0 #,##0.00#,##0_);\(#,##0\)#,##0_);[Red]\(#,##0\)#,##0.00_);\(#,##0.00\)#,##0.00_);[Red]\(#,##0.00\)"$"#,##0_);\("$"#,##0\)"$"#,##0_);[Red]\("$"#,##0\) "$"#,##0.00_);\("$"#,##0.00\)%""$"#,##0.00_);[Red]\("$"#,##0.00\)0%0.00% 0.00E+00 #\ ?/? #\ ??/?? m/d/yyyy d\-mmm\-yy d\-mmm mmm\-yy h:mm\ AM/PMh:mm:ss\ AM/PMh:mm h:mm:ssm/d/yyyy\ h:mm 0.00_) ##0.0E+0mm:ss@52_("$"* #,##0_);_("$"* \(#,##0\);_("$"* "-"_);_(@_),)_(* #,##0_);_(* \(#,##0\);_(* "-"_);_(@_)=:_("$"* #,##0.00_);_("$"* \(#,##0.00\);_("$"* "-"??_);_(@_)41_(* #,##0.00_);_(* \(#,##0.00\);_(* "-"??_);_(@_) -4IC C  C  C  C  C C C C C C C C C C C  C " C  C ! C  C  C  C  C  C "C "C !U} } } } }  I  ; ; , , ,v , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,> , , ,+#Crystal Pure Bottled Water Company     Sales Forecast    Exponential Smoothing    rjFirst we must find the best value for alpha. We will work down from .9 to .1 and find the most accurate.ForecastForecastForecast   Forecast ActualAlpha =AbsoluteAlpha =AbsoluteAlpha = Absolute  Alpha = Absolute Year Sales .9% error~ T@% error~ Q@ % error ~  N@ % error~ @~ 6@           ~ @~ @           ~ @~ @1 @?D ?D $ F?R?D D D A 1 v@?D ?D $ Cl?D D D A 1 @ffffff?D 333333?D $ jx?D D D A 1 f@333333?D ?D $ [?D D D A~ @~ ȵ@1 1@?D ?D $ jQ?D D D A 1 @?D ?D $ PDv?D D D A 1 6@ffffff?D 333333?D $ ^IC\?D D D A 1 33333I@333333?D ?D $  fsA ?D D D A~ @~ >@1 GzR@?D ?D $ Ӥ7?D D D A 1 gffffŴ@?D ?D $ ?D D D A 1 zGa@ffffff?D 333333?D $ 7s84?D D D A 1 > ףpS@333333?D ?D $ mWR%?D D D A~ @~ ˻@1 rٸ@?D ?D $CwN?DDDA1GzY@?D ?D $>U?DDDA1l鳷@ffffff?D 333333?D $ `U?DDDA 1 V-@333333?D ?D $ "k}?D DDA~  @~ @1iq@?D?D$&R?DDDA1V-@?D?D$Xuq9?DDDA1):ߐ@ffffff?D333333?D$ eVю2?DDDA 1  h"lxӹ@333333?D?D $ =+(zA?D DDA~ @~ M@1+*@?D?D$ޠK@ffffff?D333333?D$ K>?DDDA 1 fG,@333333?D?D $ !ƯD?D DDA~ $@~ @1[fu@?D?D$Dbk?DDDA1HZn@?D?D$Hj?DDDA1ZT@ffffff?D333333?D$ vUq?DDDA 1 3A@333333?D?D $ RǙ0?D DDA~ (@~ @1os -@?D?D$V?DDDA1(@?D?D$dzn?DDDA14)f#@ffffff?D333333?D$ %?DDDA 1 гߪ@333333?D?D $ t,3?D DDA~ ,@~ ?@1EPW@?D?D$?T?DDDA1Qi3@?D?D$:6 ?DDDA1?8@ffffff?D333333?D$ =%{=?DDDA 1 nq@333333?D?D $ D1?D DDA~ 0@~ @1@?D?D$H?DDDA1Qʕ@?D?D$G/ ?DDDA1Vn%:@ffffff?D333333?D$ kۮ?DDDA 1 o@333333?D?D $ L{(h?D DDA1997 estimated1`^@?D?D14@?D?D1: @ffffff?D333333?D  1 y)@333333?D?D  Mean Absolute % Errorbl8? % B]R? % B ЙDF? %  B   m.#? %  BForecastForecastForecast   Forecast ActualAlpha =AbsoluteAlpha =AbsoluteAlpha = Absolute  Alpha = Absolute Year Sales .5% error~ D@% error~ >@ % error ~  4@ % error ,D! ," ,# ,$ ,% ,& ,' ,( ,) ,* ,+ ,, ,- ,. ,/ ,0 ,1 ,>4 ,5 ,6 ,7 ,8 ,9 ,: ,; ,< ,= ,> ,? ,~ @~ 6@           ~ !@~ !@!!!!!!!! ! ! ! ~ "@~ "@1"ި@?D!?D $" ?D"D"D"A"1"V@?D!333333?D $"s[>?D"D"D"A"1"Χ@333333?D!ffffff?D $" Gq?D"D"D"A" 1" F@?D!?D $" >?D" D"D"A~ #@~ #ȵ@1# @?D"?D"$#;ş5?D#D#D#A#1#@?D"333333?D"$#?D#D#D#A#1#:@333333?D"ffffff?D"$# ?D#D#D#A# 1# 43333@?D"?D" $# Lr3L?D# D#D#A~ $@~ $>@1$f@?D#?D#$$)X?D$D$D$A$1$GzQ@?D#333333?D#$$/?D$D$D$A$1$L@333333?D#ffffff?D#$$ b[E?D$D$D$A$ 1$ (\=@?D#?D# $$ Ua(?D$ D$D$A~ %@~ %˻@1%@ҵ@?D$?D$$%1?D%D%D%A%1%S|@?D$333333?D$$%U{ b?D%D%D%A%1%)\5Ѳ@333333?D$ffffff?D$$% >6?D%D%D%A% 1% bX9@?D$?D$ $% 19p?D% D%D%A~ & @~ &@1&θ@?D%?D%$& Ów?D&D&D&A&1&h@?D%333333?D%$&t>?D&D&D&A&1&&1@333333?D%ffffff?D%$& ,],?D&D&D&A& 1& ٬\@?D%?D% $& +?D& D&D&A~ '@~ 'M@1'P@?D&?D&$'*ˉ{?D'D'D'A'1'n@?D&333333?D&$'j5?D'D'D'A'1'=UX@333333?D&ffffff?D&$' &XYln?D'D'D'A' 1' W}[@?D&?D& $'  ʨ?D' D'D'A~ (@~ (@1(@?D'?D'$(e?D(D(D(A(1(0'h@?D'333333?D'$(F`I?D(D(D(A(1(Uc@333333?D'ffffff?D'$( &WT?D(D(D(A( 1( .ED1h@?D'?D' $( Ӱ9?D( D(D(A~ )@~ )@1)J@?D(?D($)7w?D)D)D)A)1) l_@?D(333333?D($)ۯH?D)D)D)A)1)/Ef@333333?D(ffffff?D($)  EK?D)D)D)A) 1) %Za@?D(?D( $) pT%?D) D)D)A~ *@~ *e@1*@?D)?D)$*H=]?D*D*D*A*1*@9@?D)333333?D)$*iE?D*D*D*A*1*^˕@333333?D)ffffff?D)$* n&?D*D*D*A* 1* 䮲@?D)?D) $* fZ?D* D*D*A~ + @~ +]@1+ҩ@?D*?D*$+E?D+D+D+A+1+P@?D*333333?D*$+1i_j?D+D+D+A+1+BwF[@333333?D*ffffff?D*$+ r|?D+D+D+A+ 1+ gߎ@?D*?D* $+ ]?D+ D+D+A~ ,$@~ ,@1,T@?D+?D+$,Q?D,D,D,A,1,6c+@?D+333333?D+$,|I?D,D,D,A,1,xL@333333?D+ffffff?D+$, :NyϷ?D,D,D,A, 1, q̗@?D+?D+ $, pV !?D, D,D,A~ -(@~ -@1-P*@?D,?D,$-P?D-D-D-A-1-ĝ&2@?D,333333?D,$-^o-?D-D-D-A-1-tPq4@333333?D,ffffff?D,$- N ?D-D-D-A- 1- #[pO@?D,?D, $- ?D- D-D-A~ .,@~ .?@1.(@?D-?D-$.:P?D.D.D.A.1.v++do@?D-333333?D-$.jeKŶ?D.D.D.A.1.Bu@333333?D-ffffff?D-$. ¥n?D.D.D.A. 1. ۊb@?D-?D- $. E\?D. D.D.A~ /0@~ /@1/J-@?D.?D.$/Aunl+?D/D/D/A/1/ֳը@?D.333333?D.$/K?D/D/D/A/1/it_E@333333?D.ffffff?D.$/  %@1;zG@?D:?D:$;Rt?D;D;D;A;;;;;; ; ; ; ~ <@~ <˻@1<̡Esf@?D;?D;$<>eM?D<D<D<A<<<<<< < < < ~ = @~ =@1=x $h@?D<?D<$=sP?D=D=D=A====== = = = ~ >@~ >M@1>5)ݮ@?D=?D=$>e( ?D>D>D>A>>>>>> > > > ~ ?@~ ?@1?}  @?D>?D>$?As>5z?D?D?D?A?????? ? ? ? @ ,A ,B ,C ,D ,E ,F ,G ,H ,~ @@~ @@1@#m@?D??D?$@輞ȩ?D@D@D@A@@@@@@ @ @ @ ~ A@~ Ae@1A%m\@?D@?D@$Ag?DADADAAAAAAAA A A A ~ B @~ B]@1B 4Wd444????mrcw,sVr-,sVrxssI 0ssxs44xs 0 0s\sL xs 0sx 0DsDhs? xsq 0sDqq     " l Sales Force Com F B  dMbP?_"*+%,D1 Arial1 Arial1 Arial1 Arial1 Arial1 Arial1 Arial&?'?(?)?M @dXX"dXX??@V General00.00#,##0 #,##0.00#,##0_);\(#,##0\)#,##0_);[Red]\(#,##0\)#,##0.00_);\(#,##0.00\)#,##0.00_);[Red]\(#,##0.00\)"$"#,##0_);\("$"#,##0\)"$"#,##0_);[Red]\("$"#,##0\) "$"#,##0.00_);\("$"#,##0.00\)%""$"#,##0.00_);[Red]\("$"#,##0.00\)0%0.00% 0.00E+00 #\ ?/? #\ ??/?? m/d/yyyy d\-mmm\-yy d\-mmm mmm\-yy h:mm\ AM/PMh:mm:ss\ AM/PMh:mm h:mm:ssm/d/yyyy\ h:mm 0.00_) ##0.0E+0mm:ss@52_("$"* #,##0_);_("$"* \(#,##0\);_("$"* "-"_);_(@_),)_(* #,##0_);_(* \(#,##0\);_(* "-"_);_(@_)=:_("$"* #,##0.00_);_("$"* \(#,##0.00\);_("$"* "-"??_);_(@_)41_(* #,##0.00_);_(* \(#,##0.00\);_(* "-"??_);_(@_)C C  C  C  C  C C C C C C C C C C C  C " C  C ! C  C  C  C  C  C "C "C !U}   ;;M,8,?,G,I,R ,R ,R ,R ,R ,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,R,6+#Crystal Pure Bottled Water Company Sales ForecastSales Force CompositeActual Sales ForceAbsolute Year Sales Composite% error~ @~ 6@~ @$Aҳ?DDDA~ @~ @~  @$GRa?DDDA~ @~ @~ 0@$ ړOO?D D D A~ @~ ȵ@~ @$ rxq?D D D A~ @~ >@~ 8@$ &G¤?D D D A~ @~ ˻@~  @$ ;vetw?D D D A~  @~ @~ L@$ L ?D D D A~ @~ M@~ @$u`?DDDA~ @~ @~ @$/b(u?DDDA~ @~ @~ p@$R?DDDA~ @~ e@~ X@$ \?DDDA~  @~ ]@~ @$(s?DDDA~ $@~ @~ j@$?DDDA~ (@~ @~ @$Sj?DDDA~ ,@~ ?@~ @$ ⁈"?DDDA~ 0@~ @~ @$pxZ'?DDDA1997 est~ j@&Mean Absolute Percentage Errorٟo魯? %B= hL,> Wd????mrcw,sVr-,sVrlssI 0sslsls 0 0s\sL ls 0sx 0DsDhs? ssq 0sDqq     "