The Impossible Dream:
Measuring
the Power of Internet
Deliberations in Setting Public Agendas and Influencing Public Planning and
Policies
by Tomas Ohlin and Ted Becker
Jan
2006
In an earlier version
presented to Oxford Internet Institute seminar,
Authors: Prof. Tomas Ohlin,
When the Internet became a generally useful
tool in the mid 1990s, there were many who saw its potential to benefit the
practice of what is called, in somewhat of an unprecise dichotomy, both
representative and more direct democracy at different levels of
governance.
It was clear from the beginning of this
“movement,” that the Internet, with its two way interactive properties, could
be used by governments to make many of its services more efficiently available
to citizens online. Many polities had
already begun their “e-governance” phase much earlier than that, as William
Dutton, et al described in detail in their book Wired
Cities. (Dutton, et al. 1987).
The
new, more public friendly Internet, however, took “digital democracy” to a new level and has
proved to be, by far, the preferred way
new forms and degrees of representative democracy has been in interactive
contact with the public in many facets of government, from renewing drivers
licenses to downloading tax forms. Even
the most modern of “democracies”–from
Of
course, there were many different uses by which the Internet was seen as
helpful to improve the quality of democracy, particularly in terms of
empowering citizens in supporting their representatives, various and sundry
government officials, and themselves take part in planning or policy decisions
for their polities. Legislators were
quickly made aware of the value, for instance, of having “chats” with online
constituents. Emails to from citizens to
legislators and vice versa did become commonplace. Political parties now use the Internet to
help with informing party members and in helping organize party activities,
including campaigns for candidates for offices.
And a number of experiments have been carried out whereby the Internet
has been used in actual political situations for voting for candidates as well. The list is now long.
One
of the most valuable properties of any democracy, whether representative or
more direct or some hybrid or degree of both, is the importance of informed
deliberation before taking decisions on any kind of issue, problem or plan. Legislative assemblies routinely engage in
debate. Political campaigns are premised on the assumption that voters will
cast ballots on what they learned during the campaigns. City planners hold hearings where evidence is
presented and weighed before plans are made and implemented, and so on.
Among
the many questions that need to be researched and experimented with, is the
question of how efficiently the Internet has been used to date to enhance the
deliberative process in democratic processes.
William Dutton, Jay Blumler and Kenneth Kraemer were indeed eerily
prescient in 1987 when they – during pre-Internet times, in the era of ARPANET
– noted that “there are inherent biases in the newer electronic media that
reinforce more democratic and decentralized modes of communication (and) that
the new media provide the capability for telecommunications to reinforce
face-to-face (F2F) patterns of communication.” (Dutton, et al., 1987, p.22). So,
has this pro-democratic “bias” inherent in the fundamental infrastructure of
the new telecommunications technologies, i.e., the Internet, produced more,
greater or better forms or degrees of democracy in the “Wired, wired West?”
during the years around the change of century?
Generally
speaking, even as late as the middle of 2005, the answer to this must be “not
much”, if by that one means more Internet based deliberative democracy where
the input made a significant penetration into the halls and minds of those who
govern. There have been a smattering of
innovative citizen deliberation projects that have had (or are in the process
of having) direct impact on the public decision making processes of some
polity. But the clearest examples of
this phenomenon are F2F, not electronic, and when, perchance, this does occur
via some electronic participation, it often happens accidentally or
serendipitously and is difficult to measure since it is hard to construct
measurement instruments for something that is unexpected.
To
support this for technology enthusiastic democrats pessimistic statement, we
refer to the United Nations reports “Global e-Government readiness report” http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public//documents/un.unpan019207.pdf
and http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/un/unpan021888.pdf
Here, data describing 2004 and 2005 are
given. The two countries analyzed in this paper,
As a further example, let us refer to
the 2005 situation in the
Such
activities can be found in a few countries, although allocated public resources
naturally differ. No doubt this points to a will to try new technology to
engage people in community issues. Still, it is the opinion of the authors of
this text that when we aim at real citizen influence on public decision making,
the words given above are words of support for citizen influence more in theory
than in practice.
There
are exceptions, though. One of the most highly praised citizen empowerment
experiments is the citizen budget making forums in the city of
This
process continues at the present time and is widely cited and studied, and
there is expanded replication throughout
In
2003, the Parliament of British Columbia decided to allow the citizens of their
province to decide whether or not to change their system of elections, and if
so, what kind of system they preferred.
Thus, they created the Citizens Assembly to do this job. This assemblage was comprised of 2 citizens
from each electoral district in the province by random selection (one man &
one woman from each district) and they are paid for their work and time. During 2004-2005, they conducted open public hearings
throughout
When
they completed their hearings and their deliberative process, thousands of
citizens attended. In 2005, they recommended a particular change, i.e., a whole
new system for elections. This was then
put to the general public for a final up or down vote in a referendum. According
to the B.C. Parliament, if 60% of the voters in ¾ of the districts voted yes,
it would automatically become the law. What happened is that 58.4% said yes
---and they now talk of a re-vote.
Two
other examples of how F2F citizens deliberative panels (chosen by stratified
sampling techniques) have impacted upon legislation can be mentioned. The first is the Danish Technology Board
which convenes stratified samples of citizens into consensus panels whose
deliberations and recommendations have strongly influenced their sponsor, the
Danish Parliament. According to the
founder and initial director of the program, Lars Kluver, approximately 70% of
the Boards’ recommendations have found their way into law. (Becker and Slaton
2000, p.184)
The
second are the “Planungszelle” (Planning Cells) invented by Dr. Peter
Dienel of
It
would seem that the Internet, as widely used as it has come to be, and with its
strong, pro-democratic structural bias, could offer numerous examples of
equally successful public input into a vast array of public decision
making. After an intensive study of many
communications experiments designed to empower citizens, three American
researchers had this to say in 1998: “The Internet offers the greatest
potential for reconnecting the public–at least those with access to it–with the
political process. The Internet connects
individuals through Usenet news groups, electronic bulletin boards, issue
forums and chat rooms that create virtual communities and afford people an
unregulated platform to express their views.
Grassroots activists employ the Internet to proselytize the unconverted,
inform their supporters, and urge them to action. However, public officials have so far done
little to effectively use email or the Internet to communicate directly with
voters. Currently, their presence is
largely limited to their homepages which are little more than 24-hour
cyber-campaign offices.” (Johnson, Hays and Hays, 1998, p. 227).
Their
book covered a broad range of experiments designed to “engage the public” in an
informed and usually deliberative manner in public decision making. That study was done 8 years ago. Has the situation changed much since then?
There is much online discussion and contact. But is there citizen influence on
public decision making? In the next section of this paper we will take a look
at experiments in
This impression of slowness was
confirmed at a meeting in
We want to emphasize that the
discussion presented here concerns Internet supported citizen influence on
decision making. We do not analyse web contacts, blogs etc as such. Our
interest concerns the degree to which the decision makers, the politicians,
choose to listen to Internet ideas, discussions and votes of citizens in the
web between elections. In this text, we draw a sharp conceptual line between
different forms of citizen discussions and contacts on one hand, and
deliberative citizen influence on decision making on the other. Our interest
here concerns the latter of these two.
(The Swedish
Experiments: Designs, Findings and Lessons Learned.)
(1)
Kalix:
Swedish
experiments involving the Internet in the setting of public agendas vary from
case to case. One of the most well known
occurred in a small borough in the very north of
Not
only was the newly elected government convinced that something needed to be
done about this problem, they were also convinced–and said so during the
political campaign–that the public needed to be involved in consultation with
the government about what the problem really was and perhaps what solutions
there might be. What they had in mind
were open hearings and web based communications.
The
first phase of this project took place in September 2000. The idea behind it was to be very open-ended
about how to define or describe the problem.
Informative texts and graphics were distributed to the populace via
public meetings, fax, email, telephone and newspapers. The question was basically: “Are you in favor
of change”? There was no room made to
discuss any costs to any such changes.
In addition, the political parties themselves did not participate as such.
So,
what happened? Almost 1,200 people
participated in the “Kalix 1 Consultation” – by voting or commenting over the
web. This was roughly 8% of the adult
population. So, neither the process nor
the result was anywhere near definitive, and in the minds of many, it was a bit
of a disappointment. Of course, how
often does 8% of any city’s voters participate in any kind of city
planning? Such is a rarity. But if the goal was to get substantial
citizen input, Kalix 1 fell short.
It
is our view (and the view of many in Kalix) that one major reason for the
relatively small engagement was that the problem was already well known and
there was not much interest generated by rehashing it. Let’s say it was non-provocative. Also, there was not much deliberation either
in F2F groups or on the web.
So,
a second consultative project was designed: Kalix 2. This time the problem was reframed in terms
of the cost and how to pay for any such resurrection of the city centre. In other words, if you want a “Greener
Kalix,” should taxes be raised? Should
they stay the same? Should taxes be
lower? This topic definitely aroused
more interest because it surely concerned all who paid those taxes. So, although the choice of the subject
definitely was prompted by what the formulators felt would be of interest to
the citizens, the range of alternatives that were offered were still quite
narrow, there so was the range of the deliberative process.
The
Internet was used extensively in Kalix 2.
Information was posted about meetings (time and place), about whom to
contact and how to do that, chat rooms were set up and used, and last but not
least, people could vote on the issue from their home via the Internet ... as
well as from public places. Every voter was given a password that could be used
just once if they voted on the Internet.
Did
it work? Well, the turnout was far
greater in Kalix 2 than in Kalix 1, and so was the level of interest. About 52% of the people of Kalix participated
in Kalix 2 in some way. And of the 7,000
participants, over 2,000 used the Internet (about 28%). What is most interesting is that the
public’s view was that change was possible, but only a minor increase in taxes
would be necessary. This demonstrates to
us that the public was both constructive and responsible in their desires. This
is contrary to much public criticism about online citizen deliberations.
Did this
project, with its Internet activities as a part of the process, actually have
any influence on the political leaders who designed it? Precise measurement is difficult in such
situations. So, what conclusions can we
draw?
·
The choice of political
subject matter is an important one to consider when designing a
public consultation process. The matter to be dealt with should be of
common & strong relevance to the citizenry and it should be specific
enough, and provocative enough, to gain and maintain their interest.
·
Although the political leaders
seemed to support this consultation, the political parties in this case did
not, and this may have had a significant effect both on the level of
participation and the direct impact.
·
Interestingly, unexpected and
often constructive citizen suggestions were made during both the F2F and
Internet discussions.
·
The citizen participants in Kalix
2 expressed qualitative political desires, in the general public interest, in
this case to put reform priority for the elderly, to schools, and to employment
support.
·
The agenda setting, however, here was mainly done by the
politicians.
·
The public participated
responsibly.
·
Since the project was
“consultative,” the political leaders could choose to listen or not in their
final decision. Even well paid expert
consultants get ignored.
The degree to which the politicians in this case chose to listen was,
and is always, difficult to measure. However, as a political result for the
following two years that passed, the Kalix politicians allocated 3 million
Swedish crowns per year to programs consistent with the citizens´ desires as
manifested in Kalix 2. This was likely different from what the
politicians would have chosen “themselves”. They did choose to listen this
time.
The Kalix consultations
can be seen as a successful experiment in public participation in a dialogue
with city leaders. Also, the use of the
Internet was a significant part of that process, not so much as a completely
Internet based deliberation, but as a part of a more general community
interaction. Even so, the tiny influence
of so much public participation left much to be desired in the future use of
this methodology.
On May 22, 2005, Kalix did carry out a public referendum concerning
school policies. There were possibilities for online contacts before that, but
this referendum itself did not use the Internet for collecting opinions, for
reasons of insufficient voting security. Participation was 33.8 %, not very
high. The referendum result was interesting, the politicians were given a clear
(90 %) popular NO to their proposal, and the leading politician chose to resign.
However, this time the Internet was only used for chatting. Apparently, the
lessons of the success of Kalix 2 were ignored and the political leader did not
proceed at getting what they wanted from the public: its support. Had they used
the successful internet based model, they may have come up with a different
referendum.
(2)
Kista
The
agenda setting process within the EU’s Cybervote project (www.eucybervote.org) was organized quite
differently. Cybervote was a research
project (partly funded by the European Union) that included representatives
from seven European countries. The
project was carried out from the year 2001 to the spring of 2003. Participants represented users, researchers
and providers of technology. The focus
was originally placed on the development of secure Internet voting software,
and this focus remained central to the projects of most of the participating
countries during the duration of the main project. However, in the Swedish version, this was
complemented by an interest in citizen participation, discussion and agenda
setting. Such a social approach varied
from all the other nations’ part projects, that concentrated on technology.
There
were three “user” part projects, one of which was in
With
the help of local organizations of the elderly, invitations were distributed that
said: “Do you want to join in the shaping of history?” It mentioned the use of new technologies and
the participants were told that they would be instructed in how to use the
equipment. This was a general appeal to
the senior citizens to get involved in helping develop a
A
sizable group turned up for the first meeting where the discussion centered on
a variety of possible project topics to be addressed later. Through this process a list of about a dozen
topics emerged. The next step was to get
a smaller sample of the participants to use the new technology to go through
the list and establish priorities. This included deliberation, plus testing the
new secure software. The topics that was
agreed on were: (1) Local planning: parks or commercial; (2) public
transportation: buses or trains: (3) art and culture: a cultural centre or
not. These priorities were then
disseminated through printed materials and via the Internet. Two young researchers carried out a specific
study of this part of the project. This showed that these elderly citizens did
encounter certain practical problems in using, for them, those new machines,
particularly in the voting aspects, but that they appreciated the opportunity
to take part in the agenda setting.
The
main Kista trial project then took place in January 2003. Everyone who had
pre-registered was invited to come to discuss and vote. 236 elderly participants showed up, not
enough for any statistical analysis, but more than enough to show an interest
in being able to participate in and discuss such an exercise, particularly one
with a technological focus. Each person
who came was given a password that they could use once at the final vote via
the Internet. Their choices concerned the
3 topics listed above, from the earlier agenda setting process. There were discussion facilities available.
The final voting was carried out without major problems. The results showed
majorities for a green environment, a new train line, and a cultural
center. In fact, the participants were
very pleased with their experience, and several indicated that they would like
to do it again in the future. However, after a political change in local
government, interest for a continuation in Kista has declined brusquely.
There are indications of interest
from other Swedish boroughs. But so far they are very few.
In
sum, we believe it can be said that although there also are other Swedish
experiments with citizen participation via the internet, these normally concern
citizens who are responding to agendas and ideas presented from “higher
up”. Citizen participation in the
formulation of agendas and priorities is unusual. However, with the success of the Kalix 1 and
2 projects and the Kista project in involving interesting numbers and types of
citizens in helping set planning agendas, this may be the beginning of using
the Internet for such matters in the
American
Experiments:
Web
based forums, chat-rooms, bulletin boards and other methods of cyber-discussion
are rife in
There
can be no question that the availability and use of these Internet discussions
has had some kind of impact on politics in many countries. What kind and how much, however, is difficult
to conceptualize, much less measure with any degree of accuracy. One effect is certain, however: there has
been an enormous rise in “communities”, in
Does
a quantum leap in cyber-discussion for the sake of cyber-discussion on a
universe of political matters make a difference in Realpolitik? There is limited knowledge. Does it spur Karl Jung’s “collective subconscious?” No one knows.
Does it galvanize mass movements?
Who knows? Do the most powerful
people really care about it? Who really
knows? Are “virtual communities” more
powerful than geographic, political communities of interest? No one knows.
All these are matters that should be of intense political scientific
interest, but little has been done to seriously investigate such matters,
partly because they are so incredibly hard to operationalize. There have been a
number of attempts to address parts of these matters, but the problem quantity
expands faster than the suggestions for description and solutions.
However,
we would like to shed light on two fairly long-running American experiments in
cyber-discussion that are worth describing, commenting upon and comparing with
the two Swedish experiments above.
(1)
The
first is the oldest by far and the most established. It is called Minnesota E-Democracy and was founded by and still is
operated by Steven Clift, who has written and talked about it around the world
for years now. In its first incarnation,
it was an “election oriented web site” which put position papers from various
state office candidates online, “hosted candidate e-debates via e-mail, and
launched the MN-POLITICS e-mail discussion list.” Later, it has expanded, to include many
e-democratic system descriptions in numerous countries. The emphasis is laid on
election systems support and references. So, what does Clift get out of years
of this experience? In his own words:
“If ninety-nine percent of political discussion on the Internet is junk and
disconnected from anything real, then our discussions are half junk”. And as far as genuine measurements are
concerned, he notes that “Ongoing academic research and analysis seems sparse,
particularly from a quantitative perspective”.
Indeed.
The
alter ego of this election type forum is a more generalized web discussion
called Minnesota Issues Forum at www.e-democracy.org/mn-politics. Basically, this is an electronic, web-based
forum, no more or no less. Clift,
himself, calls it “a wired agora.” He is
critical of the fact that legislators, when online, do not try to get their
many isolated e-mailing constituents together to discuss the issues with other
online constituents. It is the
interconnection of citizens among themselves, particularly at the neighborhood
or town level, that Clift believes is “reconnecting” geographic
communities. He calls this the “interactive
public commons.” Few know how to judge
or measure such phenomena, even fewer know their impact.
Clift
states, after a wealth of experience, that it is very difficult to get people
to continue coming into web forums on a regular basis. It usually takes an
“explosive” issue and the best way to recruit recurrent users is via email
lists with links to the forums. In
ending his comments on the electronic agora, Clift concedes that “We started
with the ‘common’ in Minnesota, but in most places local/regional online
political communication travels through private e-mail networks and a limited
number of public e-mail lists based on specific agencies.” Or as three other researchers on this subject
put it: “The crucial question, however,
is whether use of these technologies fosters ‘cyber-communities’ that
bring people together in sustained civic relationships, as opposed to
encouraging fleeting or anonymous social contacts.” (Hale, Musso and Weare
1999, p. 105)
We
asked Clift directly (whilst he was in Mongolia discussing these matters)
if he could say that he knew of any
e-forums having any evident impact on agenda setting or similar policy making
in the USA over the past decade. He
replied - via e-yak, of course - “I think ‘agenda-setting’ is a lot easier to
prove than a measure of influence on decision-making.” As to proof, he observed that when the
present Mayor of Minneapolis announced his candidacy for re-election, he did it
online before his press conference. One
could say that this kind of inference is about par for the course as far as
empirical research is concerned on this topic.
Another
online discussion or forum experiment was carried out by Weblab as a
distinct but integrated part of the “Listening to the City” project in
The
instant results were clear and negative.
Through an elaborate deliberative process, there was an obvious and
thumbs-down response from an overwhelming percentage of those in
attendance. But there were also several
positive directions to the LMDC: make the rebuilding of the site (1) less
commercial; (2) inspiring; and (3) more of a memorial to those who died
there.
Soon
thereafter, the LMDC announced, along with statements by the Governor of New
York and the Mayor of New York City, that the plans would be scrapped and a
whole new process instituted that would adhere to the guidelines set forth by
the AmericaSpeaks ETM. Actually,
according to some observers, the LMDC plans were already “dead on arrival” at
the ETM, but that the ETM “crystallized” or was a “watershed event” that made
this clear to one and all in one huge media extravaganza.
Even
before the event, Weblab had been conducting over 30 separate small
group online forums on this very same subject as part of the comprehensive ETM
that AmericaSpeaks had designed.
In other words, it was an integral part of the process. That the results of the forums would be
included in the official AmericaSpeaks Report to the LMDC was an
important attraction to get participants and to keep them involved in the
e-forums. That still begs the main
question: Did the e-forums, even as part of a larger process of “agenda-setting”
for a major local/national issue, have any impact on the decision makers
whatsoever?
Jed
Miller, who was WebLab’s coordinator with AmericaSpeaks, is not
certain. He knows that the results of
the forums were definitely included in the official Report. But it was likely not the official Report
that convinced the major decision makers to change their mind as much as the
F2F ETM plus its widespread media coverage.
The response of officials was almost immediate, they didn’t wait to read
any report. It was as clear as crystal
that the public abhorred their initial proposals from even before the almost
unanimous votes at the ETM. In addition,
Miller told us that actually the e-forums differed significantly from the F2F,
electronically enhanced public meeting in significant ways.
For
example, according to him, there was a much stronger desire for much taller
towers (‘due to a small but vocal portion of online members’) and a much
greater resistance to letting the families of those who died have too great a
say in what was to replace the WTC. So,
ironically, the web forums, albeit a small part of the whole process, came out
much closer to predicting (not influencing) the ultimate decision by LMDC–which
emphasized having the tallest tower in the world to be built on the site and
giving the families of the victims much less of a say than they had at the
major event.
In
sum, judging from the examples above, we feel we can say that Internet
discussions have not even begun to make any real difference in either
The examples
given above are few and not very precise. One place where web-discussions
probably have influence is in policy and management decisions by global
corporations over secure electronic highways, which possibly may include
videoconferencing. These probably have
political ramifications, but as far as the average citizen is concerned, they
are more likely to concern small amounts of power - virtually and/or
really. For the most part, so far, and
to be a little provocative, what’s out there on “the electronic commons” is a
cosmos of unconnected political cyber-chatter that may be informative and
therapeutic, but not of great political decision making substance or
significance.
We suggest
that research for the near future should focus on formal citizen participation
during Internet supported deliberative decision making activities. Agenda
setting is one phase that is especially important where web-discussion and
voting is a good fit. Voting security and validity need to be resembled and sufficiently
failsafe solutions found.
Web forums
and voting are key elements to the future of the deliberation democracy
movement. Right now, they are far to the years in that movement’s progress. We
need to help them catch up through critiques like this, but better yet, by
decisions about deliberative democratic designs that include the Internet as a
major, reliable and effective component.
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